2025 MVP debate SGA vs Jokic
Welcome the the welcome article for the Take the Shot Pod on Substack
Welcome to the Take The Shot Pod Substack. We are hoping to bring you different articles every week on things that interest us in the world of sports and maybe sometimes outside of the world of sports. I thought that this topic would be the best way to kick off the Substack with the NBA MVP debate.
So what defines value for MVP? Is it stats? Is it team record? Could it be record breaking stats? To me there is no wrong answer because value is subjective. Value will always have different meaning to people. I personally don’t believe that the MVP should necessarily go to the best player but should go to the player with the best season. Yes team record should be a factor because if you are the MVP you are leading your team to a majority of those wins, but with that we will also need to take into context team construction as well.
Let’s dive into to both of their cases. At this current moment SGA and the OKC Thunder are first in the west and 2nd overall in the NBA with a 56-12 record. Currently the Denver Nuggets are 3rd in the west 6th overall in the NBA with a 44-25 record. Currently SGA is leading the NBA in scoring at 33 PPG and leading the NBA in 20 point, 30 point, 40 point, and 50 point games. SGA is also tied for 2nd in steals per game along with Nikola Jokic. Jokic is currently 3rd in scoring at 29.1 PPG, 2nd in assists at 10.3 APG and 3rd in rebounds at 12.8 RPG. Now one has been top 3 in points, rebounds, and assists. So is this enough for Jokic to win the MVP?
If we dig a little bit deeper into the advanced stats Jokic is leading in PER at 32.0 and SGA is 2nd at 31.1. For reference the average PER of an NBA player is 15. If we take a look at win shares SGA is leading with 14.9 and Jokic is in 2nd with 14.6. For context Jarret Allen is 3rd in win shares at 10.1. In BPM which is measured per 100 possessions Jokic is leading at 13.2 and SGA is 2nd at 11.6. For more context Giannis is 3rd at 8.6 and then Wemby is 4th at 6.4. If you look at value over replacement(VORP) Jokic is leading at 8.7, SGA is 2nd at 7.8, and for context there is a large drop off at 3rd with Giannis at 5.0. The standard counting stats as well as the advanced stats also tell us that Jokic should be the MVP which used basketball-reference.com for.
Let’s take into account their team construction. Jokic plays with a more veteran team while SGAs team is much younger. The average age of the Thunder is 24.1, the starting 5 is 23.2, and 22.9 is the average for players that are in the rotation. The average age of the Denver Nuggets is 26.7 and the average age of their starters is 27.8. Shai is working with a much younger team and has the best record in the west. It would be a historically great regular season if the Cavs weren’t having a better season record wise. The Nuggets are having a good regular season but have struggled when playing some of the top teams in the league. Throughout NBA history usually young teams like this are not on pace to win 60+ games but SGA is leading his team as the main offensive engine and is also a significant part of their defense. Jokic is also the main offensive engine of his team and possibly the most skilled big man of all time.
At this point I do not believe there is a clear choice for MVP and probably won’t be one until the end of the season. At this point I’m just diving into there statistical backgrounds since we have a large sample size that will reflect what their season will be assuming they do not go on an unprecedented stretch heading into the playoff. Personally I don't believe voter fatigue should be a factor with Jokic because every season should be judged individually. Right now SGA is the favorite to win his first MVP. At the end of the season I will write about my end of season awards. Until then we will need to wait to see how the season turns out to decide on where my theoretical MVP vote would go.